Thinktank analysis used government’s most optimistic oil and gas revenue forecast to predict how country would fare if it was financially independent
The Scottish government’s latest oil forecasts show that the country would be more than £7bn a year worse off if it became financially independent, a new analysis has predicted. The Fiscal Affairs Scotland (FAS) thinktank has found that under the Edinburgh government’s most optimistic forecasts for oil and gas revenue, it would be £1,308 per head worse off under full fiscal autonomy or independence in 2019-20 than if it remained funded by the UK.
Its analysis of the Scottish government’s latest oil and gas bulletin also found that even if North Sea oil prices bounced back to $100 (£63) a barrel – a scenario considered highly unlikely – its oil revenues would still fall far short of previous estimates.