All the breaking business news, as sliding oil price sends Russian currency reeling before central bank intervention appears to pacify the markets
- Latest: Ruble recovers as Bank of Russia urges calm
- Summary: Falling oil price means trouble for the ruble
- Russian banks vulnerable to tumbling ruble
5.30pm GMT
And that’s a good enough point to stop for the evening.
The ruble appears to have stabilised at around 52 to the dollar, a slide of over 3% today. It was down 6.5% one stage, on track for its biggest one-day loss since the crisis of 1998.
4.59pm GMT
As so often in life, The Simpsons got there first….
we’ve all posted this today, yes? https://t.co/kKZoSwVksv
4.59pm GMT
The fluctuations in the oil price will have meant big profits, or losses, for speculators, and longer-term investors alike.
Huge moves in commodities (Primarily Gold / Crude) since Thursday, so big margin calls on the way up & down.
4.33pm GMT
The oil price lives to fight another day, it seems, now up over 2% after earlier tumbling by over 3%:
4.27pm GMT
Ksenia Yudaeva, the Russian central bank’s deputy chairwoman, told Russian newswires today that Russian households should not panic over the ruble’s slide.
“It’s necessary to explain to people that the yield they get on their deposits at the moment will guarantee a high degree of safety for their savings with regards to inflation. They should think twice before rushing out, losing the yield on their deposits, taking on currency risks and losing money on their currency conversions.”
4.15pm GMT
French bank BNP Paribas has just lowered its forecasts for the the oil price over the next year, by up to $25 per barrel at one point
Biiiiiiig revisions in BNP Paribas’ oil price forecasts. pic.twitter.com/nxNET34Ad3
4.10pm GMT
Analysts at JP Morgan have added up all today’s manufacturing PMI surveys from America, China, the Eurozone, the UK and beyond, and concluded that growth was the weakest since September 2013.
4.06pm GMT
The ruble has been falling steadily since the the Ukraine crisis intensified over four months ago, when a Malaysian Airlines plane was shot down with the loss of 298 lives:
A bad day for the Russian ruble. Here’s the slide since Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down on July 17 pic.twitter.com/JVigGN8mb8
4.00pm GMT
Finally a bounce in the oil price! But US $71 for a barrel of Brent Crude Oil is not much of a bounce is it? #Disinflation
3.37pm GMT
The ruble is also clambering back off the mat, after its earlier pounding.
Russia’s currency is still down over 3% today, to around 51.8 to the dollar, having been down around 7% (!) earlier.
Good to see the CRB’s Cyber Monday offer on RUB was taken up well
3.25pm GMT
It’s a topsy-turvy day – the oil price is now UP today, with both Brent crude and New York crude up over 1% now (to $67 and $71 per barrel respectively).
The slide in oil is “reinforcing the loss of investor confidence in the ruble,” which has also been beset by concerns over Western sanctions against Russia and the conflict in Ukraine, said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
3.14pm GMT
Back to Russia, and the ruble continues to be buffeted around.
3.07pm GMT
Here comes the second measure of US manufacturing, from the Institute of Supply Management...
And it confirms that the sector slowed a little in November, but still grew fairly strongly. The ISM’s US factory PMI dipped to 58.7, from 59 last month — which is a little better than expected.
US ISM, manuf 58.7 but look at prices (not) paid at 44.5….
The prx paid number v odd indeed : US Headline is 2nd highest since 2011 . so certainly something of a recovery after a run of bad data.
2.55pm GMT
Back in Europe, the European Central Bank’s new Asset-Backed Securities scheme has got off to a slow start.
The ECB just announced that it bought less than €400m of ABSs last week; the latest stage in its attempt to fight off stagnation, or worse.
*ECB SETTLED 0.4B EUROS ABS PURCHASES IN FIRST WEEK OF BUYING
which is naff all
€368m?? Are you f-ing kidding me? @ecb ABSPP
@LorcanRK @ecb At that rate, only another 2,717 months to go to get the €1tn balance sheet expansion.
2.52pm GMT
Markit reports that US factory output grew at its slowest rate since January, but still comfortably outpaced Europe
Slowing global economy having its effect. New export orders by US manufacturers fall at fastest pace in over a year. pic.twitter.com/fCVLm26mem
2.41pm GMT
Gold keeps climbing…. it just touched $1,192 per ounce, up 2.2% today.
2.41pm GMT
Over in New York, shares have dipped in early trading as Wall Street traders get to work.
2.31pm GMT
In other commodities news, the gold price has been volatile today after Swiss voters rejected the proposals that its central banks should hold 20% of its total assets in bullion.
The spot price of gold fell sharply in early trading, hitting a three week low below $1,143 per ounce.
2.14pm GMT
The bosses’ protest in Paris comes as the French government prepares to unveil new legislation designed to stimulate growth and activity, later this month.
Unions and left-leaning politicians fear that workers’ rights and protections will be eroded.
2.10pm GMT
Over in Paris, hundreds of French bosses have held a protest to urge the goverment to cut tax and reduce red tape.
Small business owners marched through the French capital. They carried banners with slogans such as “Taxes, levies, charges: enough is enough”, or calling for the end of the 35-hour maximum working week.
1.55pm GMT
Interesting… the oil price has now clawed back this morning’s selloff, which saw it hit fresh five-year lows.
The price of US crude oil is now back at at $66.34/barrel, and Brent crude at around $70. Still sharply lower than a week ago, but broadly unchanged today.
1.44pm GMT
Larry Elliott, our economics editor, reckons the Russian central bank had to wade into the markets to prop up the ruble this lunchtime:
A ruble in freefall does pose a threat to financial stability in two big ways. Firstly, it increases the foreign currency value of Russia’s foreign liabilities, currently worth around $200bn (£127bn). Secondly, a continued fall in the exchange rate will encourage Russian citizens to convert rubles into dollars and euros, thus increasing the risk of bank runs.
Russia’s banks are in better shape than they were in 1998 and the government has the financial firepower to help them out should they get into trouble.
1.22pm GMT
There’s a strong correlation between the slump in the oil price in recent months and the weakness of the ruble.
But the ruble has actually fallen more than you’d expect, if you compare the current situation to the height of the financial crisis:
Since making its most recent peak in June at $115.71 per barrel, Brent crude is down 39%, during which the ruble fell 37%.
Interestingly, the ruble’s decline matches that of the 2008-2009 when oil price crashed more than 75%. For the ruble to fall by the same magnitude on the back of an oil decline that’s half that of 2008/9 highlights the sobering fact that there’s more to ruble’s woes than just falling oil.
12.15pm GMT
Update: the ruble is clawing its way back from the brink, from 54 rubles to $1 to “just” 52.
Traders suspect the Central Bank of Russia has waded into the markets. Analysts at Citi say:
“It looks like the Russian central bank could be the behind it.”
12.08pm GMT
Time for a recap after a morning of generally downbeat economic news (with some highlights):
“Once we get over the panic, Brent prices will probably stabilise at around $65-80 a barrel in the short term.”
“In the short term, the Russian market is a victim of OPEC’s apparent decision to reduce the volume of high-cost production through lower prices,”
“The market and the ruble will not stabilize until oil does.”
Rouble getting beaten like it owes money. Down 7.30% vs USD on the session
Ack! :/ RT @TheStalwart: 5-year Ruble chart. Amazing crash. pic.twitter.com/vl7Hf5T4Rs
“There’s downward pressure on many commodities. That is a function of disappointing global growth and especially the slowdown in China,”
That is negative for equities.”
Market forces live > Vodafone falls 5% on renewed deal talk http://t.co/qw0RUGyOJe
11.29am GMT
The ruble’s selloff continues…
RUBLE TUMBLES TO 53.00 VERSUS US DOLLAR
11.15am GMT
This chart provides a little perspective on this morning’s rise in unsecured consumer borrowing:
Are Britons loading up on unsecured credit again? Level of debt now highest since Spring 2011 according to BoE: pic.twitter.com/G4UCjbKcCM
11.02am GMT
The slump in the oil price has piled more pain on Russia, sending the ruble into freefall today.
The ruble has tumbled by 4.5% against the US dollar today, to 52.5 rubles to the $1.
#Russia Ruble seems to be about to overtake #Ukraine Hryvnia in 2014 currency ugly contest. Ruble now down 37%ytd. pic.twitter.com/0jXW2NZaLH
Rouble now down 5% today against dollar/euro basket, 34% since beginning of the year. Is it what they call a meltdown?
10.53am GMT
Britons piled more debt onto their credit cards in October.
Data from the Bank of England showed that net unsecured consumer credit rose to £1.087 billion in October from £942 million in September.
10.25am GMT
The robust UK factory data has given the pound a lift.
Sterling has gained over half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.571.
“Sterling has rallied this morning after a positive Manufacturing PMI figure.
With the pound steady so far on the day, this latest data has helped bolster the currency against the dollar and many other currencies to start the week off. However, the Euro has had an overall strong morning as well with Final Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone showing only very slight growth at 50.1, but Spanish Manufacturing beating expectations at 54.7.
10.14am GMT
Today’s forecast-beating UK manufacturing PMI survey shows that British factories are upbeat despite the troubles in Europe, says Rob Wood of Berenberg:
UK manufacturing is resisting the weakness in the Eurozone on the back of strong domestic momentum this side of the Channel.
New export orders fell again, especially from the EU, Russia and emerging markets, but domestic spending kept the show on the road.
10.04am GMT
The slowdown in the UK housing sector continues, with the number of new mortgages approved by lenders hitting a 16-month low.
9.50am GMT
Markit economist Rob Dobson blames the weak euro, and the general economic slowdown, for the drop in new exports from UK factories last month:
Slower global economic growth is hitting sales to emerging markets, while a strong sterling-euro exchange rate is also stifling trade with the eurozone nations.
9.40am GMT
Britain’s factory sector has outpaced the eurozone.
Output, new orders and employment levels all grew last month, thanks to “solid domestic” demand, according to data just released by Markit.
Good news! UK manufacturing #PMI improves to 53.5 as the recovery continues #GBP
Exporters faced a combination of subdued global market conditions and a relatively strong sterling-euro exchange rate.
This domestic uplift has been the counterbalance to disappointing export opportunities with the strength of sterling and lack of activity from emerging markets having an impact.
9.16am GMT
Europe’s economy woes deepened last month, as growth in its manufacturing sector ground to a near-standstill.
That’s the message from this morning’s purchasing managers surveys, which show that storm clouds continued to gather over the eurozone economy in November.
Eurozone manufacturing stagnates as big-three nations contract; #PMI at 50.1 (50.6 in Oct) http://t.co/SBwjyWY7Oq http://t.co/vDdIlPQpB0
Not only is the performance of the sector the worst seen since mid-2013, there is a risk that renewed rot is spreading across the region from the core. The sector has more or less stagnated since August, but we are now seeing, for the first time in nearly one-and-a-half years, the three largest economies all suffering manufacturing downturns.
“Germany’s export engine has stalled, causing the steepest deterioration of new orders in the country since December 2012, and new business is also falling in both France and Italy, boding ill for production in coming months.
9.00am GMT
PMI Manuf readings not providing great start to new week/month
8.59am GMT
Ouch! Germany’s factory sector suffered a small contraction last month, showing that Europe’s largest economy struggled in November.
The German factory PMI fell to just 49.5, as firms reported the sharpest drop in new orders in almost two years.
Germany Mfg #PMI falls to 17-month low of 49.5, signalling downturn in German manufacturing http://t.co/oMokaWBhl3 http://t.co/oTnlmZylJN
8.56am GMT
France’s manufacturing base also contracted last month.
The French factory PMI hit 48.4, largely unchanged from October’s 48.5 (but not as bad as the flash estimate released two weeks ago)
More economic woe for #France as its maufacturing #PMI remains in contraction territory at 48.4 #Euro #ECB
8.53am GMT
Italy’s factory sector continued to shrink last month, according to data firm Markit.
The Italian manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 for November, weaker than expected (anything below 50 indicates a contraction).
8.51am GMT
Just in: Moody’s has downgraded Japan’s credit rating, from AA3 (the fourth-highest rating) to A1 (five-highest).
The first driver for the downgrade of the Japan government’s debt rating to A1 is the rising uncertainty over whether the government’s medium-term deficit reduction goal is achievable, and whether policy makers can overcome the tensions inherent in promoting growth while simultaneously stabilizing and reversing the rising debt trajectory…..
The second driver for the downgrade is the rising uncertainty over the government’s ability to enhance medium term growth through structural economic reform — the third ‘arrow’ of Abenomics — success in which will be crucial to achieve fiscal consolidation. While some indicators suggest a pick-up in economic activity over the past year, potential economic growth remains low…..
Moody’s downgrades Japan to A1 from Aa3 … just as Japan enjoys lowest borrowing costs on record. Last week, 2y yield even went negative
8.43am GMT
Australia’s stock market has also been hit hard by the oil price slide.
Fears that the global is slowing down helped to wipe $30bn off the main Australian index today.
Local shares are now trading down 2.7 per cent for the year-to-date, while the dollar is trading around levels not seen since July 2010 as a slide in global oil prices puts pressure on the local market.
At its bi-annual meeting last week, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) elected to maintain production levels despite a slide in energy prices over recent months as the growth in global supply has outstripped the growth in demand.
8.36am GMT
Shares in oil companies are being hit hard in London this morning, as Brent crude hits a five-year low below $68 per barrel this morning.
The FTSE 100 has fallen by 60 points, or almost 1%, at the start of trading. Energy and commodity firms are leading the fallers; exploration firms Tullow Oil and Weir Group are the worst hit.
8.27am GMT
Good news from Spain, its manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate since June 2007.
The Spanish factory PMI rose to 54.7 last month, beating expectations of 52.1. Markit, which conducted the survey, says:
Output and new orders each rose at rates not seen since prior to the economic crisis, while employment also increased at a faster pace
Spain PMI: ‘There is little sign of any end to deflationary pressures in the sector as prices for both inputs and outputs continued to fall’
That’s a nice rebound in Spanish manuf PMI. New orders, output & employment highest since Q2 07. Output prices down though.
8.18am GMT
The sharp fall in the oil price is excellent news for consumers and firms with large transport costs.
Analyst Steve Baines flags up that drivers have already felt some benefit:
Fuel prices at the pump have now declined by 8p/litre since the end of September. Equivalent to a £2.7bn annual boost to disposable income.
The immediate focus will remain on cheaper oil; good news for consumers and for those companies benefiting from reduced input cost pressures, less so for central bankers wrestling with disinflationary concerns.
8.15am GMT
The oil price has hit its lowest levels since October 2009 as the steep selloff than began last week continues.
The news that China’s manufacturing growth had hit an eight-month low helped to drive the price of a barrel of Brent crude down to just $67.76 this morning.
“Just when the market was thinking that a 4-year low for crude oil was bad enough, we have hit a 5-year low after the OPEC meeting,”
8.03am GMT
Another worrying sign – Indonesia’s factory PMI fell to its lowest level since the survey began 44 months ago.
HSBC #Indonesia mfg #PMI falls to record low of 48.0 in November (49.2 in Oct) and cost #inflation accelerates http://t.co/AOBGqikzPV
7.59am GMT
Asian factories suffered a drop in growth last month, in the latest sign that the global economy faltered in November.
China’s factories grew at their slowest pace in eight months, according to Beijing’s survey of the sector. Firms reported a weakening in output, and in new orders.
Domestic demand expanded at a sluggish pace while new export order growth eased to a five-month low.
Disinflationary pressures remain strong while the labour market weakened further.
7.54am GMT
European stock markets are expected to fall this morning, as growth fears and the falling oil price hit stocks:
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6681 down 41 $DAX 9918 down 62 $CAC 4357 down 34 $IBEX 10706 down 65 $MIB 19908 down 107
7.53am GMT
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